With the Tory leadership contest now in full swing, colleagues Sophia Stileman (a hard-Brexiteer) and Neil McAvoy (a passionate Remainer) have joined forces to provide you with all the balance and insight you’ll ever need on the runners and riders - ranked here in order of their current odds.

Boris Johnson 2/1

The ultimate marmite candidate and current front runner. Those who love him are drawn to his often jovial and amusing demeanour. Others find his assertions often baseless and clumsy, presented through unnecessarily flamboyant language disguising either true meaning or a complete lack of meaning.

So what are his chances of winning? Thinking suggests that if Johnson makes it to the final two, he stands the best chance of becoming PM. But while he’s popular with the membership, many Tory MPs are not so sure. The crucial factor for Boris is the length of the leadership contest: with over a month to go, there is time for a typical ‘Boris’ shaped scandal to emerge, and another dark horse to win the prize. The latest obstacle is a mandatory court appearance over the famous slightly dodgy number crunching that led to the £350m bus campaign. But can this (or literally anything) stop the political force that is BoJo, or has it even worked in his favour?

Michael Gove 3/1

Unlike many of his colleagues, Gove does get the job done and is an extremely active politician. His time in DfE and DEFRA have each been marked by substantial change. From shaking up marking procedure in the education system to making lofty environmental promises ranging from air pollution to microbeads, Gove has always been an active innovator (for better or worse!).  

It might look like Gove has largely been forgiven for stabbing Boris in the back during the last leadership contest all those years ago in 2016. While his politics aren’t everyone’s flavour, he’s capable, effective and statesmanlike when he needs to be. As mentioned, he’s also no stranger to innovation. He still holds water with some ‘true’ Brexiteers in the party (although many classify him as a sell-out for voting for May’s Withdrawal Agreement) and hasn’t acted so destructively as to mar his relationship with more moderate conservatives. This ability to reach across his own party may be the key to his success.

Dominic Raab 6/1

Backed by wealthy Tory donors and a number of influential MPs including David Davis and Maria Miller, #ReadyforRaab is certainly gaining momentum. However, his identity as a ‘true’ Leaver is arguably too closely linked to Boris – both ‘hard’ Brexiteers with economically conservative and somewhat socially liberal ideals behind them. He’s often regarded as the more credible Brexiteer, with social mobility at the heart of his campaign to become the next PM.

His critics point to his track record as the shortest serving Brexit Secretary of the bunch, Raab’s tenure was either a heroic endeavour to secure a style of Brexit he wanted or a wake-up call that it was never possible. For an ex-international lawyer, Raab’s knowledge of geography, or at least his knowledge of the Dover-Calais crossing, could certainly use some refining.

Andrea Leadsom 8/1

Leadsom famously drew criticism in the last leadership contest for claiming in a Times interview that she’d make a better PM than May because, wait for it… she’s a mother. Already the claws have come out, as she turned on the soon to be former PM, suggesting that we would have already left the EU had she won in 2016. Motherhood powers and all that. In all seriousness, the Leader of the Commons stands a good chance, with prominent backbench support. Whether or not she can shake off past controversy and present a rejuvenated image is the big question.

Regardless, what MPs from across the house likely won’t forget of her tenure as Leader of the Commons were her concerted efforts to prevent and rectify bullying and harassment within parliament, even standing up against the speaker in the most public of ways.

Rory Stewart 14/1

Atlas Director Charlie’s former school fencing teammate wasted little time following his appointment as International Development Secretary in announcing his bid to be the next Tory leader. Nobody can accuse him of being a career politician, having tutored members of the Royal Family and advised Obama on foreign policy, not to mention the fact that Orlando Bloom was lined up to play Rory in a film of his life in 2008. Or has all of it just been a fevered opium dream?

Team #Stewart4Stewardship is picking up momentum daily, with Tory centrists welcoming his commitment to compromise and find a way forward through Brexit without turning to the political extremes of No Deal or a People’s Vote. He’s spent this week popping up in public places, asking to be debated, prompting some hilarious tweets. Regardless, his common sense approach and engagement with the public is a welcome breath of fresh air. Fun fact: did you know his name is actually Roderick? Meaning we may be looking at Prime Minister Rod Stewart in the near future. He’s certainly given us a Reason To Believe.

Jeremy Hunt 16/1

Jeremy Hunt was very unpopular as Health Secretary with the medical establishment, but his odds on winning a Tory leadership contest aren’t quite so dire. A ‘converted’ (soft) Brexiteer, he’s seen by many as a credible alternative to the hard-Leavers of Boris and Dom. He could appeal to both sides of the Tory Party and he has, as Foreign Secretary, come across as sensible and measured; a feat not all that impressive or surprising in contrast to the record of his predecessor. He could well be a surprise candidate to watch out for coming through the middle, although he is seen as a bit ‘continuity May’ which will not be well received by many in the Tory party.

Sajid Javid 25/1

While often uninspiring, it’s safe to say that Javid, or ‘The Saj’ as we hear he prefers, has a big ego and lofty ambitions. Like Hunt, having been a ‘reluctant remainer’, Javid has similarly, dutifully converted to religion of Leave. A tactical move for someone looking to shore up support within both the party and the membership.

While his record in the Home Office hasn’t yet been subject to any real controversy, it also hasn’t been all that noteworthy. No matter his ego, this is likely exactly how ‘The Saj’s’ leadership campaign will go. His first campaign video had us all cringing. The question is, are you #AvidForJavid?

Matt Hancock 33/1

The leading One Nation representative of the group, Hancock is hoping to heal the nation’s deep divides and constitutional crisis through being “a leader for the future, not just for now” and promising the “bright future we must build for Britain”. Could he be the centrist voice the Tories need, or is this just meaningless waffle?

That being said, his record as DCMS Secretary is widely admired across the board, with a great track record on tech investment, and a fervor for digitalisation. We might even all download the Matt Hancock App now. But has someone told him that he won’t be able to digitalise Brexit.... or will he?

Esther McVey 50/1

The former work and pensions Minister has is one of only two women standing in this race. So far she’s welcomed a ‘no deal’ Brexit and committed to more police funding: welcome policies with the Tory grassroots but not enough to really carve out her own identity and form a distinct campaign in a very overcrowded race. In a battle fought almost purely along Brexit battle lines, her commitment to a hard-Brexit won’t be enough to win over voters. She only has five parliamentary supporters so far, and one of them is her fiancé Philip Davies.

If McVey was to progress to the later stages of the race, her views (backwards to many) would be placed under increased scrutiny. Her recent comments on LGBT lessons in schools have already attracted significant scrutiny and it’s very likely that there will only be more instances of this the longer McVey remains so visibly in the public eye.

Mark Harper 100/1

Don’t worry, we had to Google him too. Just in case you can’t be bothered, he’s enjoyed a number of ministerial positions since 2005 and most recently served as David Cameron’s Chief Whip between 2015 and 2016. It seems unlikely that even he believes he can win.

Sam Gyimah 200/1

The latest candidate to announce he’s running for leadership, but the only one to publicly back a second referendum. He’s clearly hoping to capitalise on the parliamentary Remain wing of the Conservative Party, but he would be defeated heavily when faced with the Leave-supporting membership.

James Cleverly 33/1 (withdrawn 4th June 2019)

A relatively fresh faced Brexit Minister, James Cleverly sadly has just one MP supporting him (Colin Clark...yep, us neither). One of the more recent MPs of the group, the former Deputy Chair of the Tories has only been a parliamentarian since 2015.

However, we’re not convinced this is a serious bid to be the next Prime Minister of the UK as much as it’s a bid for a weighty cabinet position. That being said, he is definitely one to watch for the future as his no nonsense style and ability to talk ‘human’ make him an effective communicator.   

(04/06): Cleverly has withdrawn, citing that he is highly unlikely to be considered for the final two candidates.

Kit Malthouse 100/1 (withdrawn 4th June 2019)

To politicos his surname is most associated with the ‘Malthouse Compromise’, a doomed yet commendable attempt to bring the Tory party together during the most fractious period of Brexit votes. To much of the public, he’s a complete stranger. Potentially the least likely to win the race but at least a few more people might hear his name.

(04/06): Malthouse has withdrawn.

Odds are correct at time of publishing.

Comment